In our position of observers of the international juncture, we have to register the evolution of the political, economic and social “convulsion” that is taking place in that neighboring Andean country. In times when integration is up in Brazil and Latin America, it is important to understand some of the reasons for the intense social struggle Bolivia goes through.

After all, thousands of workers, peasants, students Indians and the people are blocking the roads and holding enormous demonstrations uninterruptedly during the last three weeks in the Bolivian cities demanding the renouncement of President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada. The main reason for that is the announcement that natural gas—by far the country’s main natural wealth—is going to be sold via Chile.

In fact, since the last presidential elections held on June 30, 2002, the country is in a state of conflagration. By the time, left-wing sectors almost won the Bolivian presidency. The results were tight—Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, from the right-of-center party Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) won 22.5% of the ballots. On the left side, Evo Morales, Indian leader of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) won 20.9%, while another Indian leader, Felipe Quispe, from the Movimiento Indígena Pachakuti, won 6.1% of the votes. In all, 22.5% for the present President and 27% for the two left-wing candidates. However, in the local electoral system, either the candidate win victory in the first round of the elections or the Congress elects the President in the runoff. Therefore, despite the excellent electoral performance of the left-wing candidates, the right-wing parties united in the runoff and won the victory for Lozada. The growth of the left is mainly due to the fact that 62% of the Bolivians are Indians.

The present demonstrations were preceded by marches in February 11 to 13 (the “black February”), which shook the country and bloodied Bolivia with the repression and death of about 30 demonstrators.

The issue of gas exploration is the main one of Bolivia’s national agenda and constitute a considerable part of the country’s exports income. Multinationals that control the Bolivian product work with two main export routes: Brazil, by means of the Brazil-Bolivia gas pipeline, and Chile, with a view of reaching the market in the United States’ West coast.

The sale of Bolivian gas to Brazil may become impracticable due to the recent discovery, by Brazilian oil company Petrobrás, of an enormous reserve in the region of Santos (in the state of São Paulo), with 419 million cubic meters of gas—more than enough to supply the present domestic market, also allowing to make gas become an important energetic source for our development in case investments in infrastructure are made. Brazil has now the fourth largest reserve in South America, behind Venezuela, Bolivia and Argentina, surpassing Peru, now in the fifth place. For the record, we should add that the agreement Brazil made with Bolivia—signed during the government of former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso at the peak of a recent energy crisis—constituted a bad deal for the country, a contract obliging Brazil to pay a determined amount to Bolivia, despite consuming the gas or not, resulting in losses for Petrobrás. The Brazilian gas will cost $2.5 USD per million BTU (British Thermal Units) against $3.40 USD presently paid to Bolivia. The recent finding of Petrobrás caused great distress in Bolivia.

The other alternative—gas going from Chile to the United States—is the main reason for the present demonstrations. Controlled by three multinationals (BP, Repsol and BG) exportation via Chile is a delicate and sensitive matter because it hurts the Bolivian national pride since the region was subject of a war between the two countries, a war caused by the Bolivians’ wish to have access to the sea, when they were defeated by Chile. Moreover, the great flag of the Bolivian demonstrators is nationalizing gas and industrializing it before exportation in order to increase its value. The debate is crucial to Bolivia since, to a great extent, the perspectives of development of the country will derive from that decision.

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The general strike that started on September 30 seems to be far from ending. The struggle is increasingly radical and the doors of “reconciliation” are shut, including by Lozada’s government. According to local annalists, if the government does not accept nationalizing the gas and review it exportation, the opposition will not give up waving the flag of his renouncement.

The last chapter was the proposal made by the mayor of La Paz of holding a national referendum to settle the gas issue. The Catholic Church already tried to mediate the negotiations without success.
There are rumors that Lozada may decree a State of Siege or even resort to a coup, what would represent a threat of leading the country to a civil war with important consequences to the struggle of Latin American peoples for development and sovereignty.